自1954年以来, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has gradually increased rates to curb inflation thirteen times before considering reversing the hikes and bringing the interest rates back down. It is just something that happens, like crummy weather, while you are at the beach. One way to navigate a volatile market is to understand what is happening and how to prepare today for such an event.
“软着陆”对你有什么影响? 你准备好了吗??
When the Fed increases interest rates enough to slow down the economy and curb inflation without sending the economy into a 经济衰退, 这被称为“软着陆”.这是使用航空术语“软着陆”的隐喻,” to describe the economy refers to an aircraft landing without damaging the vehicle or the contents within it.
“硬着陆”对你有什么影响? 你准备好了吗??
A hard landing occurs when a significant economic slowdown follows swift economic growth. 例如, when the Federal Reserve decides to raise interest rates to curb inflation, 它可能会使经济进入停滞期或, 最终, 经济衰退. The term "hard landing" was taken from the world of aviation as a metaphor for an aircraft descending with greater vertical speed and force than in a normal landing without actually crashing.
然而, "hard or soft landing" terms are somewhat subjective as no set definition exists to quantify each. Some market analysts argue that a mild 经济衰退 with a minor increase in unemployment is a soft landing as opposed to a hard landing despite the economy being in an actual 经济衰退.
The most famous "hard landing" was probably from July 1980 to January 1981. 美联储将联邦基金利率上调至19%以上. The economy reacted with a 16-month 经济衰退 that stretched from July of 1981 to November of 1982, 失业率徘徊在10%左右.8%. Eventually, the Fed lowered the interest rates, and the economy had a chance to begin healing.
最普遍的“软着陆”发生在1994年, when the economy struggled into its third year of recovery following the 经济衰退 of 1990-91. In early 1994, 联邦基金利率 was at 3%, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation stood at 2.8%，失业率迅速下降. The Fed realized the economy was growing and unemployment was decreasing, and slightly raised rates to mitigate a potential increase in inflation. 在这一年中，美联储七次降息. 然后, in 1995, 它降低了基本利率, 联邦基金利率, 三次以防止通货膨胀上升. Former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, Alan Blinder, called it the "perfect soft landing."
你能做些什么呢?
Whether the economy is idling in a soft landing or experiencing the crisis of a hard landing, it is critical that you are prepared for such an event and manage your finances carefully in the grips of economic uncertainty. 考虑以下七条应对不稳定经济的建议.
- 创建一个诚实和可管理的预算 — An honest budget that you can easily manage can help you navigate the tumultuous waters of an unstable economy. 一个强大的预算不仅可以帮助你的财务稳定, but it can also give you confidence to help you push through difficult times because it is inevitable with a historically unpredictable economy.
- 削减你的开支 -我们中的大多数人轻率地花了远远超过我们真正需要的钱. 有很多很棒的东西可以让生活变得更轻松, 更多的乐趣, 更好的品尝, 更令人印象深刻的是, 但在困难时期, 愿意削减不必要的开支会有很长的路要走.
- 建立一个舒适的应急基金 — Having a comfortable emergency fund can help lessen the stress and anxiety that come with market fluctuations and changes to the interest rate. Generally, saving enough to cover your expenses and lifestyle for up to 3-6 months is encouraged.
- 确保你的投资多样化 — You may hear about building a diversified portfolio all the time because it is that important. 如果你把钱分散在不同的投资上, 在动荡的市场中，他们应该受到冲击吗, 希望其他人能帮助减轻打击.
- 咨询你的理财专家 — Consider consulting a financial professional to determine whether you are truly prepared to brace a soft or hard landing. Not only can they give you feedback on how you might fare should the market go haywire, but they can also help you create strategies and goals to address risk and options for preserving wealth.
要求免费咨询, 无论是面对面的还是虚拟的, 与元素财富管理的财务顾问合作.
重要的信息披露
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and 不 intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.
There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. 分散投资并不能防范市场风险.
All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.
来源:
- 硬着陆和软着陆简史|卡托在自由博客
- 美联储的利率历史:1981年以来的联邦基金利率| Bankrate
- 什么是软着陆? 布鲁金斯学会|
- 软着陆:经济学的定义和历史.com)
- 大衰退及其后果|美联储历史
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